Bad times ahead

The narrative, India and Israel are part of compact to undo Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, is so firmly established in Pakistan that it is very difficult to raise a voice against it. Therefore the PPP leadership as well as the ‘liberal’ intellectuals are keeping quiet. The PPP, in addition, is sucking up to the establishment to foil the blandishments of the increasingly powerful opposition

The Afghan imbroglio is getting worse for Pakistan. There is an emerging consensus in the West that the failure of the NATO forces in Afghanistan is due to the active Pakistani support of the insurgents. Pakistan has a clear stance that it is not extending any help to the Taliban or Al Qaeda. The American leadership and intelligence agencies are however of the view that their opponents are getting support from within Pakistan’s geographical boundaries.

There have been plenty of incidences over the past several years to substantiate this conclusion. The latest of these is the unnoticed residence of Osama bin Laden in the heart of one of the most important garrison towns of the country. In addition to the permanently dysphoric religious parties and military leadership, some established pundits have also brought into the narrative that Pakistan’s eternal enemies i.e. India and Israel are part of this compact to undo Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

This narrative is so firmly established in Pakistan that it is very difficult to raise a voice against it. Therefore the PPP leadership as well as the ‘liberal’ intellectuals are keeping quiet. The PPP, in addition, is sucking up to the establishment to foil the blandishments of the increasingly powerful opposition. To this end, Asif Ali Zardari, with great finesse, has purged the party and neutralized the elements who could have deviated from the traditional narrative. Zardari has done this with one eye on the powers that be and another on the public opinion. As a result, it has become difficult to tell the difference between the PPP, all varieties of Muslim Leagues and Jamaat e Islami and its ilk. This has also led to the PPP cohabiting quite comfortably with the likes of Q League and the Muslim Conference.

This policy of the PPP, to stay in power, whatever the cost, will strengthen the unilateralism and the violent narrative that exists in the country, because the establishment has recourse to a greater number of partners who have an isolationist world view. Conflict will increase with India, Afghanistan and the West and paranoia about the rest of the world will be nurtured further. This is reminiscent of what Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto did on a smaller scale, when he declared Ahmadis, non Muslims, announced the Friday weekly holiday and allowed the secular army to be Islamized and politicized; all to appease the religious extremists.

Bhutto’s followers are doing the same, but they have a bigger task at hand. Bhutto had tried to adjust to the internal national dynamic. The present regime is entangled in many more messy internal and external situations, and has to look after its international image as well to stay in power.

The western powers, including the Americans, view Pakistan joined at the hip to the insurgency in Afghanistan and associated with international terrorism. They are also deeply anxious about the safety of its nuclear weapons. When the international community looks at the events that have taken place and their background and looks at the motivations of various actors, all arrows point in the direction of the army and intelligence agencies. To create this perception, Indian reaction to the increasing terrorism in Kashmir and other parts of India has played a role, as India wields a much stronger influence at international forums, such as the EU.

This is the outline of the situation, which is making the decision makers in Pakistan jittery and is causing a serious break down of communication with the outside world. However there does not seem to be any relief in sight, as there is unlikely to be a let up in the international pressure on Pakistan. Pakistan is becoming increasingly isolated and increasingly xenophobic.

If the American and NATO forces continue to withdraw on schedule, and continue to adhere to their strategy of remote attacks on selected targets, it seems inevitable that the targets inside Pakistan could expand, which would lead to a stronger public reaction and further pressure on the government and the army. This will also lead to further retaliatory attacks by the terrorists and selection of newer targets and adoption of newer techniques. This will not only endanger the regional peace but also, quite seriously, the existence of Pakistani state. Unfortunately, neither Pakistan, nor the western powers seem to be capable of dealing with the coming crisis.

The writer is an investigative journalist, his recent book Punjabi Taliban has been published in urdu and soon being published in English language. he can be contacted at