Presidential [s]election in Iran

Some political experts from an illusory angle believe that this high-rate participation and Rouhani's election must be seen as a "Big No" to Khamenei and his preferred candidate Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, while there is couple of facts push us to refuse this assumption

There is no controversy in the fact that structural crisis of the Islamic republic system of Iran is not utterly resolvable in an election frame; however, the lately presidential election is an appropriate case for analyzing the current interior and international issues IRI is facing with.

Hassan Rouhani among other six candidates approved by Guardian Council has been declared as the winner of Iran's presidential election. He has been a member of the Supreme National Security Council since 1989, head of the Center for Strategic Research and much important, the former nuclear negotiator.

Referring to his background and reputation in the 34-year-old Islamic Republic, he, as a moderate cleric, is called a "principlist-reformist" and vice versa. Politically he has been one of the trustworthy key figures for supreme leader, Khamenei, and one of the most strategic characters for implementing the strategic plans of IRI and in course of candidacy campaigns to the election he has constantly emphasized on his "independence".

According to the declared statistics about 72.2 percent of the over 50 million eligible Iranians had turned out to vote and Rouhani had won Iran's presidential election with more than 18 million of the votes. Meanwhile around 15 million eligible people refused to vote in this round, according to the published statistics he has mostly gained his votes from the small towns and villages, for example he has had a bit more than one million votes in Tehran which is rather remarkable. 2

Considering complex political situation in the country had been remained since 2009 presidential election led to the Reformists expelled from government and arbitrary house arrests of two protestor candidates, Mousavi and Karroubi, engineering of the election through collecting the adequate candidates by Guardian Council and assuming the further fraudulent election yet again, it was anticipated to have a very low participation rate, but the event happened in an exceptional way.

"Why have people voted?" is a challenging question today. Indeed, every election for most of the people seems to be a least chance for grasping few changes in their daily living life, and regarding the nuclear issue and the severe sanctions affected the lower classes in Iran, broken-hearted people, regardless of thinking about legitimizing or delegitimizing the state, have been seeking out few opportunities amid this election for a new diplomatic proceeding to resolve the issue with western countries. The economic embargoes primarily hit the Iranian people, especially the working classes, leading to an even inferior situation. The impact of these restrains parallel with the long-term neo-liberalization of the economy has been becoming more observable in few last months, and the high-rate inflation (according to the official sources more than 30%) and significant lowering of the living standards is undeniable.

Additionally these sanctions have given the state more power to increase oppression and there is the crushing impact of poverty on huge number of subalterns more than ever workers not been paid for months, not allowed to form their own organizations, every day workers on strike face unemployment without unemployment insurance and the like. Besides, the petit bourgeois layers or as the reformists say the "middle-class", is afraid of falling down to the lower classes and therefore, the election would be likely an opening to postpone it.

Although Ahmadinejad has been a "sincere servant of Nezam" (the system in Farsi), had to be sacrificed to take on the responsibility of all ruins during eight last years; mainly to show off an optimistic perspective for the new Mr. President in spite of reducing the function of the president in Islamic republic by supreme leader to a ritual position and no further.3

Here is an extremely important point should not be neglecting, and that is the coincidence of The Iranian local elections took place on 14 June 2013, the same time with the presidential election. According the definition, the city and village councils' function is helping the social, economic, cultural and educational advancement by encouraging public participation in social affairs and every council also elects city mayors. Therefore, as councils directly and without any mediation are influencing the daily living life of the people, these are incredibly important for people to be actively participated in election of Council members. Modifying the election date of Iranian local elections coinciding with presidential election has been a discreet way of strategic increasing the rate of participation in presidential election.

Some political experts from an illusory angle believe that this high-rate participation and Rouhani's election must be seen as a "Big No" to Khamenei and his preferred candidate Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, while there is couple of facts push us to refuse this assumption.

Undoubtedly, the recent election has been a real substantial opportunity for supreme leader Khamenei to stabilize the new power structure after the 2009 political crises; Khamenei had called on Iranians to create a "political epic" by their "big turn-out" in the election. Regarding the election as a manifestation for enticing the participation he said "In upcoming elections each vote to any of the candidates is a vote not only to the Islamic Republic, but also the confidence vote to the elections authenticity and apparatus".

Moreover, we cannot consider the so called election even as a semi-democratic one. Certainly in the absence of political parties, organized party politics and a low-level social freedom, deformed election processes, qualifications of presidential race candidates through ultra-legal capabilities of Guardian Council and the key role of ultra-powerful Revolutionary Guard to interfering in all the processes of the elections, etc. talking about the "election" does not make sense any more.

In other words, although we might be convinced that the recent election is not been a fraudulent one, however, it is not deniable this election has been softly engineered in the highest level of power, particularly by the supreme leader and his reliable Revolutionary Guard commanders and so forth.

Coming back with the question" why would Rouhani's election be favorable for Khamenei?" and apart from the roaring torrents of congratulation message from different part of the government and foreign politicians, it is necessary to refer the crises Islamic Republic is confronting:

1- Multifaceted political situation in the country and regime’ foreign policy on nuclear issue is sparking profound conflicts with the West. In last decade, nuclear ambitions of the Iranian regime have provided the West with the possibility and the excuse to adopt a tough stance towards Iran through economic embargoes and habitual threats of a military invasion as all set option on the table. By now, Rouhani as a moderate is anticipated to reject Ahmadinejad’s antagonistic approach in world affairs and he seems to be well thought-out of conducting the IRI nuclear plan yet again in a diplomatic way which is more agreeable and encouraging for the west.

2- Furthermore, he could be an efficient choice for the supreme leader managing the intergovernmental conflicts intensified after the 2009 election in which isolated the reformist wing. Despite of some hardliner reformists who were dissatisfied of being participated in so called presidential election, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami, the two former Iranian presidents rejected elections boycott, and after approving Rouhani by G.C they both officially supported him.
Undoubtedly, the election has been an extraordinary opportunity for either supreme leader to eliminate (at least reducing) the gap in government or excluded reformists for politically reviving and returning to the institutional power.

3- From the perspective of economy, Rouhani, would be as well a competent choice for the regime in current critical condition and to follow the major economic projects of the system. Nevertheless many people who have voted expect Rouhani bring some changes especially through negotiation and reconciliation with west to decline the tight sanctions and save the crippled economy. But it should not be forgotten the great god father of neoliberal project in Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani, is standing behind Rohani's economical policies. Besides, as a number of outlined names like Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, the Moderation and Development Party leader as Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance and Nahavandian, the chairman of ICCIMA 4 as Industries, Mines and Trade Minister in Rouhani's cabinet are foreseen, it would not be unimaginable how Iran will be appreciated by IMF's authorities for the third time.

Indeed, the social class gap is continually widening, and in contrary some misleading minds attempt to show up the gap between nation and the state due to the Rouhani's election is in the lowest level in 24 last years! And consequently, people should sympathetically support the new president to implement the amendments. No one is allowed to construe the recent peaceful election as government retreat on account of the people dissatisfaction. This inglorious argument in due course debits the people to the ruling class, and never is not obliged to the people attitudes and any bottom-up organizing plan to arm people against the government, and only looks for the resolutions in the high level of power through lobbying in any 4-year vicious cycle of election (namely "ballotism" syndrome). There is no progressive political force tie up the hopes and expectances of the people to any engineered action by governments. The real changes happen in another realm.

Footnotes:

1- Referring to celebration on the streets of Iran after declaration of Hassan Rouhani's victory in presidential election on 14 June 2013.

2- The rate of participation in Tehran has been totally less than 50% of eligible people.

3- Referring to the speech of Iran’s supreme leader about the elimination of the country's presidency. If this happened, the parliamentary system could instead be used to elect officials holding executive power.

4- Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture