If the civilian government in Pakistan survives its current confrontation with the courts and the military, the big winner may be the playboy international cricket star often dismissed as a political gadfly, Imran Khan.
The crisis that has been building since May is due to hit a critical moment on Thursday when Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is scheduled to appear before Pakistan's Supreme Court to answer charges of contempt.
Gilani, however, insists he has immunity from prosecution, which stems from his failure two years ago to abide by a Supreme Court order that he re-institute corruption charges against Pakistan's president, Asif Ali Zardari.
There is a lot of haggling going on in the background and it is possible some compromise will be found before Gilani appears in court.
Over the past few days, a common determination has surfaced among all sides involved to avoid a breaking point that would prompt the army to step in and restore order, as it has done on three occasions since the country's independence in 1947.
Increasingly the talk is of early elections, perhaps in April or September, to try to provide a parliament and government acceptable to Pakistan's 70 million people and its hugely powerful pillars of state - the judiciary and the ultimately dominant armed forces.
And this is where Khan, 59, who after years as the sole representative in parliament of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (Movement for Justice) is suddenly attracting huge crowds at political rallies, comes into the picture.
To Pakistanis looking for someone acceptable to the public, the courts and the military, Khan is an attractive proposition to many.
Prime Minister Gilani and President Zardari are clearly approaching their sell-by dates, and their Pakistan People's Party doesn't appear to have any credible understudies in the wings.
The main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, ousted by a military coup in 1999, is
unacceptable to the military and he despises it.
There are two scenarios being floated by which Khan might come to power. One is through elections, though an early vote in March or April would probably not give his still ill-prepared party enough time to organize.
The other is that the military, with whom Khan has good relations despite his having fallen out with the last military coup leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, might put him up as the facade prime minister of a military-backed regime.
But Khan, who in 2008 won a Pakistan magazine's "Paris Hilton award for being the most undeserving media darling," is likely a frail reed on which to base the survival of civilian democratic government in the country.
At his recent rallies his speeches have brimmed with nationalist rhetoric and he is jumping on the bandwagon of anti-Americanism in Pakistan while also trying to burnish his Islamic credentials.
But it's always been a problem trying to put a finger on what Khan is about.
He comes from an affluent family in Lahore and went to a private school in England before getting a degree in politics and economics at Oxford University.
But it was his skill at cricket that marked Khan out from the start. He played in the Oxford University team and then went on to play county cricket in England in the 1970s and 80s, first for Worcestershire and then for Sussex.
In 1971, he first appeared as a member of the Pakistan national team and was captain for most of the decade to 1992. In that year he established him-self as Pakistan's most successful cricketer when he led his team to its first and only World Cup victory.
As a cricket star and eligible bachelor in the 1970s and 80s, Khan was a fixture in the premier London nightclubs, and his love life with a succession of beautiful women was regular fodder for gossip columnists.
In 1995, he married Jemima Goldsmith, but the marriage ended in 2004 because of her inability to adapt to life in Pakistan.
After his cricketing career, Khan founded a cancer hospital and research centre, and then in 1996 created his political party. He got into parliament in elections held in 2002 under the umbrella of Musharraf's military regime, but fell out with the general and resigned in 2007. He spent some time under house arrest and then in prison for opposing Musharraf.
He says his party is dedicated to anti-corruption, the market economy, democracy and the rule of law. But he has also supported military rule and consorted with reactionary religious leaders.
His values, all too often, seem to depend on the direction of the wind.
Source : Vancouver Sun
