Arab uprisings are likely to gradually affect the regional political landscape. The most important offshoot of the Arab Revolution will be the strategic shift in world politics regarding Israel as the epicenter of Middle East since Israel may find itself isolated and vulnerable to Islamic radicalism
On January14, 2011, history took a new turn, when Tunisians president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia following a wave of public outrage. At that time nobody realized that the mass demonstrations in Sidi Bouzid sparked by the death of a Tunisian hawker would change the course of whole Arab world in the days to come.
Ben Ali’s 23 years’ era of aristocratic rule came to an end with unprecedented public protests. The movement for political and economic reforms spurred a similar rebellion in Northern African and Arab countries. Consequently the tyrannies of Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria were the next to see the wrath of oppressed public demanding freedom, democracy and basic civil rights.
Some analysts are quite sceptic of Arab Spring which they believe is mostly sponsored by the western powers especially in Libya therefore the surge of uprising did not affect the US-favored regimes like Saudi Arabia or Bahrain. Nevertheless, for the common Arab people it was the political reawakening, to reclaim their democratic rights ,which overthrew the apparently invincible rulers like Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Qaddaffi. While the polarity between the rebel ideologues and structural chaos within the pursuit of agitation indicates the intrinsic political volatility of the Arab world, it also seems implausible to envisage a certain climax of this revolution. Absence of democratic traditions in Middle East, fiasco of secularism, dictatorial rule and ethnic and sectarian split in the Arab countries give some credence to this argument.
Arab uprisings are likely to gradually affect the regional political landscape. The most important offshoot of the Arab Revolution will be the strategic shift in world politics regarding Israel as the epicenter of Middle East since Israel may find itself isolated and vulnerable to Islamic radicalism. Traditionally Israel deems Iran as its great enemy but the Arab spring may force the Knesset to debate impending threats like the Muslim Brotherhood . The ongoing conflict within Syria could also incite the supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against Israel in future.
In the aftermath of Arabian upheavals the entire Arab political and regional discourse is in transition. Hezbollah party is in full control of Lebanese politics, the Egyptians are demanding the review of the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty while Jordan’s political elite is facing a rising internal political pressure.
At the same time Iran is showing its determination for nuclear enrichment and Palestine has doubled its effort to gain international support for statehood. Creation of independent Palestinian and the issue of new international borders are of pure political nature but hardline religious factions in the region are politicizing the issue by maneuvering Jihad. This orthodox and extreme political mindset in Muslim states which resurfaced during the Arab Spring is alarming for the regional stability while instigating further conflict between Islam and the West.
For instance, Egypt after a decade or so could be more worrisome for Israel because the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as powerful political force there. It may be pertinent to mention that founder of this religious movement, Hassan al-Banna, was a not only an aficionado of Adolf Hitler but also an exponent of Nazi regime. Dialectical process of Arab Spring is not only perturbing for Israel but it could be problematic for the countries like Egypt, Libya and Yemen since there is a no powerful leadership.
Egypt and Libya are the prime example of post-revolution anarchy, where security situation and law and order are continuously deteriorating. It may not be wrong to say that all those Arabs cheerleading for revolution at Tahrir Squuire or Misrata actually had no clear objective for this revolt except for a common desire of social change. People believe Iraq under Saddan Hussain’s control was much better in terms of law and order than post-war Iraq struck by sectarian violence and bomb attacks. And the same seems to be true with Libya and Egypt, where Qaddafi and Mubarak managed to contain sectarian,ethnic and religious riots in their respective countries during their rule.
Arab Spring has taken its toll on the Arabian economy too foreign investments have decreased in many countries while the tourism industry is also suffering due to violence and instability. Moreover unemployment rate is on the rise and budget deficits in almost all countries have become a matter of concern for respective governments. Especially uprising in Yemen and Libya caused severe halt to oil production. Oil exports are the main source of income for these two countries so they are facing real threat to their economies. The crisis has a social backdrop too, as the unemployment rate is rising in youth and hopeless economic conditions are compelling skilled workers to migrate to other countries.One may argue about the economic or social progress made before the public agitation in Arab countries but one cannot deny the fact that the post-revolt Arab is, for that matter, not quite hunky-dory.
Arab Spring may have given a chance to all the revolutionary Muslim ‘tweeties’ to flock together and topple the oppressive regimes but the social and political repercussions of this revolt may clip their own wings at some point in time.
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Duriya Hashmi is a passive activist, blogger and aspiring film maker who writes to vent anguish and believes in art as a catalyst for change. Her cyber self can be followed at |
