Nothing can be substantiated; however, one thing is for sure. The President did not feel secure in his own country and has departed to the Middle East
On 1st of December 2011, the Supreme Court of Pakistan had ordered the ex-Ambassador Hussain Haqqani (placed on Executive Control List, or ECL, by the Interior Division on the advice of the Supreme Court), DG ISI, the COAS, the Prime Minister and the President to file their responses in the “Memeogate Scandal” within 15 days. Meanwhile a larger bench of the Supreme Court would conduct the hearings of the case from the 19th of December 2011.
On the same day i.e. 1st of December 2011, Babar Awan, President’s close aide, while addressing a press conference at Press Information Department along with Firdaus Ashiq Awan, the Information Minister, said “I unfortunately belong to the same province from where dead bodies of three Prime Ministers were dispatched while coffin is being prepared for another. And will it serve the interests of the federation?” On 8th of December Babar Awan reappeared and stated that the cruel joke being played is about to conclude and anybody found subverting the constitution would be rendered an accused. On the same day Mian Nawaz Sharif while addressing a press conference explicitly opposed any unconstitutional act to topple the civilian set-up.
President Zardari left the country on the 6th of December under mysterious circumstances while contradictory statements kept pouring in from various PPP quarters. What actually triggered the sudden departure of President Zardari is still being speculated. It is rumored that Zardari was in favor of Pakistan’s participation in the Bonn Conference whereas the army was standing in the way. It was also hinted at by some in the media, though fallaciously, that Zardari received treatment at the Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology (AFIC) and even had a hot exchange of words with the Army Chief. Some have even speculated that the army gave two choices to Zardari; to quit or face treason charges under Article 6 of the constitution. Nothing can be substantiated; however, one thing is for sure. The President did not feel secure in his own country and has departed to the Middle East.
While the father is receiving treatment in Dubai, son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari wearing a Sindhi cap held a one to one meeting with the Prime Minister. He also presided over a high level meeting of top PPP leaders at the PM House.
As the Supreme Court has asked the respondents to file their replies in the Memogate scandal, the only replies which would matter are those of the army chief and the DG, ISI. In all probability the replies would not be channeled through the Ministry of Defense which is part of the civilian government but the Judge Advocate General (JAG) branch of the GHQ. The replies are also likely to implicate not only Hussain Haqqani but also his boss President Asif Ali Zardari.
On the basis of statements presented in court by the khakis and the non-implementation of earlier directives of the Supreme Court on NRO, the Supreme Court would come up with a ruling and may ask the army under Section 190 to act as an executor. Hence this time around there would be a role reversal. Not the Supreme Court validating an ultra vires act of the military but passing a judgment which the army would take up for execution and subsequent follow-up. In all likelihood, the PM alongwith his entire cabinet and the PPP appointed governors and parliamentarians from all provinces would resign. However, the President would not. Meanwhile, the hardcore PPP leaders would be able to bring enough people on the streets not only in rural Sindh but also in many parts of rural and urban Punjab. The PM would hold a press conference and apprise the countrymen of the glitches and setbacks he and his government faced while in office.
The MQM, the ANP and the PML (Q) would immediately distance themselves from their previous allies and look for a piece of the pie in the new set-up while a sizable number of those who remained deprived for quite some time now would look towards the military rulers for prized appointments as it is only during such interludes that these people who can never win an election get the opportunity to flourish.
Farooq H. Naik would act as the figurehead President whereas Generals Kayani and Pasha would call the shots. Soon thereafter an interim set-up of technocrats and some political turncoats would be installed. After a while the schedule for the new elections would be announced and the ISI would support Imran Khan with all its might and unlimited resources. At the same time every effort shall be made to prevent the PPP and the PML (N) to form the new government.
Imran Khan the romantic savior with no clear vision would come into power after the elections, however, would fail on several counts. It would not be far when he would develop differences with the khakis and may face the same fate as the rulers of the past. Meanwhile, the fate of the state would hang in the balance.
| Waseem Altaf is a social activist. |
