Ek Pahloo Yah Bi Hai Kashmir Ki Tasveer Ka!

Subcontinental peace doctrine; a Kashmiri digress Dr.

Javid Iqbal Digress has a variable meaning; to get astray, to wander, go off the point, deviate, go off on a tangent or ramble.

What Kashmir has come to witness over last 423 years is nothing short of what digress implies.

The countdown starts from 1586, the year Emperor Akbar [1656-1605 A.D] put into practice means, fair and foul to get Kashmir and let the subcontinent breathe easier, while Kashmir lapsed into a distressed breathing.

Akbar had the ever turbulent Kabul and its fallout on India's northwestern front in view, when he opted to go for the jugular.

The 'jugular' terminology might be recent, a term coined by Pakistan [Shah-rug in Urdu, which should precisely mean the windpipe] however the implication is the same; a vital geo-political link, inherent in which is the Subcontinental peace doctrine.

The doctrine involves using the depth of J&K state, its lofty mountainous passes, and severe weather conditions, to act as the defence barrier for the subcontinent with minimal financial implications.

In the process, if any infringement of human rights occurs, it should be treated as a minor con in a galaxy of pros.

Having the subcontinent breathe easier was what Nehru [1947-1964], Akbar's junior by approximately 300 years in exercise of power, albeit of democratic hue, planned in securing Kashmir.

While saluting his predecessor of yore for his cosmopolitan polity, deft administrative touch, Nehru faults him for neglecting India's sea routes in his write-ups.

Nehru on the contrary took good care of the sea routes, while handing over the vital land route to the newly created state of Pakistan.

He took good care of the jugular too, in obtaining Kashmir.

However, if Akbar had left the sea unguarded, the route wherefrom Europeans entered, by leaving northwest to the emerging state, Indian planners, primarily Nehru thought of riddance.

That is the easy way of putting the trouble in neighbour's backyard, a neighbour eager to own it.

One wonders, whether there was any planning in it, apart from the fast graying ones bent upon enjoying unbridled power, across the divide? There was such a reluctance to touch the troublesome northwest that Nehru reportedly had his military planners roll back their design to get deeper into the opening of Kashmir towards northwest, that is Pakistan controlled Kashmir.

The military planners did toy with the idea, as they felt; they were in a position to go further.

Given that partition had taken effect and India could hardly afford to cross, what had turned into international border; valley was Nehru's limit, even remotely getting to areas of J&K State near northwest remained a taboo.

In strategic terms, this meant the mountainous passes remaining open to intrusion/ infiltration; the Indian bugbear.

Akbar, it seems had a better appreciation of strategically the most vital region of the subcontinent than Nehru, even if he did could not apprehend the trouble brewing in the sea routes.

Sea intrusion had hardly a precedent, but Khyber Pass was the known intrusion route, ever since Aryans entered to settle in Indo-gangetic plains.

India however had her policy planners in external affairs ministry work out plans for the region.

What was in British times the 'political department' a subsidiary of home department had evolved into states department, shifting policy planning vis a vis neighbours to ministry of external affairs [MEA].

In Mughal and British period, it was a home affair.

Kabul was a Mughal province.

Britain strived to keep it under their sphere of influence, to keep the Czars away from Indian borders.

India, the most prized possession of the British Empire had to be off limits for Czars, so the Kabul/Kashmir arc assumed to be of strategic importance.

How India dealt with the arc post-independence will be assessed later, first we would look at how British managed it.

As the British closed in on Delhi in mid 19th century, making pensioners of Mughal rulers in Red Fort, their attention turned to Punjab, the land of five rivers.

Highly irrigated agricultural lands, bustling commerce in the cities made acquiring it a great attraction.

Ranjit Singh, the Punjab ruler was the impediment.

He had created the vibrant Khalsa Durbar in Lahore, tamed NWFP, kept Kabul in check and acquired Jammu, as well as Kashmir.

It had yet to be J&K; the political identity came up later.

As long as Ranjit lived, he kept the British at bay.

With his death in 1839, intrigues multiplied in Khalsa durbar.

Within seven years, the durbar had three of sons ruling the tottering state; the last Duleep Singh was a minor.

Rani Jindan, his mother was the real ruler.

In this tottering Durbar, Dogra rulers of Jammu played a prominent role.

Jammu was a vassal state ruled by Gulab Singh.

The Dogras had done the spade work in acquiring Kashmir.

The wily fox, as the British called him was soon to expand his state to Ladakh and he could have had Lhasa and with it Tibet, had his luck held on.

In subduing Lahore, British banked on Jammu ruler; a safer bet.

With the treaty of Lahore [9th March] and Amritsar [16th March] in 1846, the new political entity, J&K state came into being.

The addition of Ladakh enhanced manifold its strategic dimension.

British planners did have the option of direct control; they didn't exercise it for logistic reasons.

The stretch of forces under command of 'East India Company' ruling India in the name of British crown was immense in the length and breadth of India.

Moreover Gulab was a dependable allay, willing to be a partner in controlling south Asia's sensitive access routes.

As soon as they had consolidated the hold, they started pushing and easing out Pratap Singh, Gulab's grandson on grounds of mismanagement and conspiring with Russians.

Much later, in 1953 Sheikh Abdullah was incarcerated, reasons being similar, Americans replacing Russians as the arch villains.

A regency council with Amar Singh, Pratap's brother in it was created to put into affect direct control.

After much cajoling and several petitions power was handed back albeit with a British resident in Srinagar to oversee affairs of the state.

On a similar plane, Gilgit was leased to the British in 1935.

All this was affected to secure the defence needs of the sub continent, while paying mere lip service to the aspiration of Kashmiris for effective self rule.

Delhi's supervision was considered imperative, so that the sub continent could breathe easier! Post independence, the Indian strategy evolved around denying Pakistan the strategic depth in Afghanistan.

The Pakistani planning banked on shared religion.

However, ethnicity proved to be a greater combining factor than religion, as Afghan Pushtuns sympathized with NWFP Pushtun aspirations for self rule.

Badshah Khan, the frontier Gandhi was not satisfied with what the sub continental divide entailed for his people.

He lived much of his life, post 47, in Kabul, while cases were launched against his son, Wali Khan.

Pakistan sought to dilute the ethnic factor by stressing on religion.

The competing ideologies continued until Russia thought of putting into practice the age old design of getting closer to warm waters of gulf.

The huge country was plagued, as she still is by cold water ports and a limited coastline.

Warm waters of the gulf formed in addition, the international energy routes, where America had an unbridled access.

Russian violation of Afghanistan's sovereignty was soon branded as the communist menace trying to overshadow the religion.

The projection suited the Americans.

It is indeed an irony that Americans are crying hoarse and lecturing the world on dangers of religious extremism, which she helped to nurse, foster and cross several milestones in 1980's.

India did show concern; Russia however was a bigger concern than Indian sensitivities.

Pakistan got a chance of a lifetime, so the planners in the neighbourhood thought of turning the arc to her advantage by gaining the strategic depth, she had always craved for.

Soon the arc got extended to Kashmir; the Kabul/ Kashmir arc that had been planner's dilemma right from Akbar, down to Ranjit Singh, the British working on since ages, in an urge to secure their defence needs.

The diverse perceptions of India and Pakistan vis a vis Kashmir had them working at cross purposes, with both failing to perceive the threat overtaking the whole of sub continent.

Terms like state actors and non state actors came to fore to in a blame game irrelevant to the situation.

True that non state actors fostered had motives, ill suited to India's security and major economic expansion.

However what was done or left undone in the past sixty years is making the subcontinent pay heavily.

The strategic Kabul to Kashmir defence arc, as also the one on upper Himalayan ranges in Ladakh and Karakorum cannot be worked out without joint Indian and Pakistani effort.

And that effort would hardly have the force of conviction without settling Kashmir.

Chinese noises are not mere noises; now and then they raise questions on McMahon line.

That adds another dimension to the hardly relevant Durand line, the line that divides the sub continent and Afghanistan.

Durand line is hardly relevant, it is an unworkable border.

Pushtuns living across it have hardly had any respect for it, pre or post independence.

McMahon line has never been accepted by Chinese, ever since they refused to comply with it in British times.

The entire gambit of working out secure borders depends on effective regional co-operation.

Making SAARC an organization with telling effect, bringing in Afghanistan into it as a fully honoured member and accepting the doctrine of self rule to address sub regional identity crisis seems to be the only way out.

Afghanistan may be geographically outside the sub continent, the geo-political dimension makes it very much a regional player.

And that is pre-Islamic, when it was a Buddhist centre of some importance.

China might come around, once she is convinced that nothing remains to be exploited in the sub continental divide.

Short of it the sub continental players would remain engaged in the zero sum game, a no win situation for all engaged in widening the needless divide.

Is anyone listening or would they ever?! We conclude another 'Pahloo' of 'Tasveer Kashmir'.

Many more remain? Yaar Zinda, Sohbat Baqi [Reunion is subordinate to survival] Feedback on: Iqbal_drji6217@yahoo.co.in or javid.iqbal46@gmail.com High food prices make a mockery of growth statistics Rural people are now more poverty-stricken The trick in this presentation on prices was that the rate of inflation on point to point basis was arrived at by comparing it with its level in the previous year.

On this basis even when wholesale price index went up, rate of inflation was shown to have gone down.

Balraj Mehta Even as the Reserve Bank of India started to review its expansionary monetary policy in support of the "stimulus" programme of the UPA government for the private corporate business in the wake of global financial meltdown, Mr.

Rangarajan, chairman of PM's economic advisory council cautioned that soaring food prices warranted stricter monetary policy.

Food inflation, meanwhile, soared to over 17 per cent early in December of this year.

Food inflation, ostensibly a fall-out of drought, may well overshoot the Reserve Bank's projection of 6.5 per cent rate of inflation overall by the end of March next year.

In the event, the apex bank may have to step in with some monetary tightening during its policy review in January to prevent inflationary pressures from rocking not just the farm sector but the entire economy.

Ironically, the media cell of the Congress too has expressed concern about the increase in food prices.

The party found it necessary to remind the government of its responsibility to curb the price rise but also made the point that it was a coalition government.

"Though we are the major party in the government, we are only first among equals," it said.

This was its way of putting the responsibility for controlling prices on Agriculture Minister, Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party.

Before the procurement of rice started in the end of September, there was a stock of 47 million tonnes of food grains available for public distribution.

Of this, 28-29 million tonnes of wheat could have helped us to tide over the crisis due to decline in the production of rice because of drought.

What really required was judicious release of food grains to check rise in their prices.

The government has defaulted on this.

Monetary policy, however, has a crucial role to play in keeping aggregate demand at a reasonable level.

Even though it may not have a direct impact on bridging the gap between demand and supply of food grains, it can regulate money supply.

To rule out the role of monetary policy for excessive liquidity can pushed up prices, especially in the case of foodgrains.

But the Finance Ministry is still keen on a cheap money policy which provides the main "stimulus" to the corporate sector and in term has boosted only the production of some articles of elitist demand and consumption.

Large corporate houses can raise - and have raised - funds from the stock markets and other form of savings in the economy if they have projects that are worthwhile.

They have also managed to get back credit at low rates of interest.

As far as the Small and Media Enterprises (SMEs) are concerned, the banking system is wary of accommodating their credit requirements unless it is convinced that the demand for credit of SMEs is at a sustainable level.

This approach is due to the difference in perception.

While SMEs feel they are not getting adequate credit, the banking system looks at a different calculus in terms of risk and the viability.

The problem is that foreign capital inflows till recently were moderate and are only now picking up.

At the present moment they can be easily absorbed by the system.

The PM's advisory council has estimated that the gross capital inflows from abroad could be around $57 billion this year and current account deficit could be around $25 billion.

Therefore, the net addition to financial reserves could be around $20 billion.

It s not a very large increase to cause concern for the policy-makers in the UPA government who are only eager to provide "incentives" to attract foreign credit.

The policy makers also resist the idea of imposition of tax on capital inflows as Brazil has done.

Some countries have hiked cash reserve ratio also to curb capital inflows at a gainful level.

India government had, however, taken a variety of measures in 2007-08 which relaxed restrictions on capital inflows to ease the domestic financial crisis.

They believe that foreign direct investment (FDI) is good.

But inflow of capital for financing dubious transactions is risky.

The budget for the current financial year was framed with a view to letting the stimulus continue for the corporate business.

However, it is being considered whether the government should begin reversing the process if the economy picks up by the next fiscal; otherwise it will be difficult to control the rise in fiscal deficit.

But the Finance Ministry is more keen on going on with stimulus for corporate growth rates, economic stability.

Steps are required to bring down the fiscal deficit.

The government may really be forced to cut down welfare schemes next year to make this possible.

This will hit the vulnerable sections already suffering from inflation of commodity prices as well as increase in the prices of essential commodities for the mass of the people.

This will hit the populist-political pretensions of the ruling Congress party.

The Congress leadership is desperately trying to evade accountability on price inflation.

But revival of market-friendly economic growth is also important for it both for political and social considerations.

Its policy measures are based on myths rather than reality of the prevailing economic and social environment in India.

Week after week, statistics have been presented by the government to show decline in the rate of inflation.

It was claimed that on February 27 this year, the inflation rate had come down to only 3.2 per cent as against 13 per cent in October last year and then had became negative.

The trick in this presentation on prices was that the rate of inflation on point to point basis was arrived at by comparing it with its level in the previous year.

On this basis even when wholesale price index went up, rate of inflation was shown to have gone down.

Actually there was further rise over and above the high touched in the previous year rather than a fall.

The fall in the rate of inflation was not a relief in prices but aggravation for the consumers.

The fact is that the rate of inflation started to rise in 2006 and touched its highest point in 2008.

There was slowdown in the rate of economic growth and loss of jobs and purchasing power of the incomes as well.

The cumulative effect on the level of the rise in wholesale price index combined with slowdown of economic activity became intolerable.

The steeper rise of retail prices made the position of the consumer worse, specially for the vulnerable sections of the population, which are a majority in India and does not have any protection from the rise in prices.

The self-employed and unorganised workers have indeed been facing destitution.

The facile calculations of prevailing mass poverty in the country have indeed become irrelevant in these circumstances.

The official claim, which was found to be exaggerated by competent observers, that only 26 per cent of the population in India is below the official poverty line in any bumper crop year and in the wake of a period of relative price stability, no longer carries conviction.

Those who are below the poverty line even conservatively estimated, cannot now be less than 50 per cent of the population, with a much bigger proportion in the rural areas and urban slums sunk in abject poverty.

-(IPA Service) Dead end This climate conference! S Mukhtar "Uncle, what is this United Nations Climate Conference about?" "Well, great step indeed! This is to fix the ways and means of sustaining our entire world Climate so that we may continue to live - how otherwise? The climatic changes are threatening our very survival!" "But who undid our climate pattern?" "Who, what do you mean? Could it be an individual?" "I mean which countries exactly.the rich or the poor?" "True.the advanced developed countries the most." "You call them advanced.these Yankees and John Bulls and that entire ilk.that spoiled our whole environment, our whole climate pattern? Cursed they are! And is this climate conference now called by the poor developing countries?" "No, no.more by the advanced countries." "Wonder! They raped it.

They took it almost to the point of no return.

And now they call conferences to save it.

And the developing countries run to such conferences.

Wonder of wonders!" "They have to." "Uncle, I know what these conferences are about?" "Yes say." "You remember the Earth Summit Conference (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; June 3-14, 1992)?" "No.

Say." "Heads of state 117 and representatives of nations 178 attended that summit: the largest gathering till then of world leaders it was.

Wealthy industrialized nations of the North (i.e., Western Europe and North America) on the one side and the poorer developing countries of the South (i.e., Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and parts of Asia) on the other.

Disputes! The North wanted environmental restrictions urged upon the South.

These restrictions would hamper the South's economic growth.

All this, the North said, to save our planet's environment and climate." "But wasn't that good?" "Uncle you are sleeping?" "No." "You are.

The Developed ruined both environment and climate.

And then they dictate to the Developing thus: Look darlings, you shouldn't spoil it.

Themselves, they go on ruining it further.

The Developing.should they take such orders? No." "Let's see what this Conference does?" "Nothing Uncle but the imposition of these dictates.

And the sugar coat will be some financial aid." "No pessimism please." "Pessimism? $10 billion each year for the next three years are proposed to be paid to the poor countries.

Hundreds of billions of dollars every year then is the grand lure to them.

All this by the advanced rich countries.

The decision is expected next week when the heads of states and environment ministers of 192 nations meet." "That's wonderful!" "Uncle, really wonderful! The rich shall say to the poor: We will go on spoiling the environment the climate the whole planet.

You don't do it.shall not do it.

Take that money and shut up and sleep.

Good?" "Very good! Excellent! So shall say almost all the poor.

Uncle, there will be other strings too.

No strings, no aid.

And Mother Earth will dry up over her children." About us | Advertise | Other Publications | Subscriptions | Weather | Letters | Send Mail Disclaimer: Information is being made available at this site purely as a measure of public facilitation.

While every effort has been made to ensure that the information hosted on this website is accurate CHAIRMAN: VED BHASIN Kashmir Times Group of Publications Edited, printed and published by Prabodh Jamwal Editor-in-Chief, The Kashmir Times, Residency Road, Jammu, J&K, INDIA.

Executive Editor: Anuradha Bhasin Jamwal E-Mail: vbhasin@sancharnet.in, jmt_prabodh@sancharnet.in