India-US air exercises directed at Musharraf: US analysts

WASHINGTON, Feb 18 (UNI) The ongoing joint Indo-US exercises are aimed at warning Pakistan that if its much-talked of spring offensive against the Al Qaeda does not yield results, New Delhi's help would be sought, according to US geopolitical analysts.

The US and Indian Air Forces began on February 16 a 10-day exercise over Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh, the first time the two countries have cooperated in aerial combat games.

The ongoing air exercises are aimed at sending a message to Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf that New Delhi was prepared to help in rooting out the Al Qaeda's top leadership, believed to be hiding in the areas along Pakistan's Western and North Western borders with Afghanistan, if he was unable or unwilling to do so, Analysts at Strategic Forecasting (StratFor) said.

While Indian Air Force officials have been quoted as saying that the exercises were meant to prepare for future joint peacekeeping operations and not for any Indian combat role alongside US forces, such claims do not make sense because warplanes are not used for humanitarian reasons, the analysts said.

However, Washington's posturing will likely intensify the split between it and the Islamic world, StratFor predicted, and that was exactly what Al Qaeda was hoping for.

"To effect a mass rising against the Musharraf regime, India must be seen as colluding with the United States in an anti-Pakistani manoeuvre," analysts said.

"The United States is using the Indian card against Pakistan, but India is happy to play along as it seeks to advance as a regional and global player.

Also, New Delhi knows that helping the United States will not derail the ongoing peace process with Islamabad either." They said the US was attempting to increase pressure on Pakistan regarding its offensive against Al Qaeda in the tribal areas that straddle Pakistan and Afghanistan.

"This move will have serious repercussions for the perception of Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf and for ordinary Pakistanis, who will see it as further evidence that the United States, India and Israel are colluding against Pakistan and the Arab/Muslim world.

This works to Al Qaeda's advantage." But US is not worried by such perceptions, they said, and is determined to pursue the crackdown against the 'jihadist' network.

Washington, StratFor pointed out, has long been asking Islamabad to either root out the militants, or let the Pentagon handle it.

"But there is a limit to Musharraf's willingness to go along with such an operation because of potential domestic problems.

Earlier this month, Musharraf said he was in favor of increasing US troops in Afghanistan but that they were not needed on his side of the border since the situation was fully under control." The US knows that Musharraf is trying to resist the pressure to go on the hunt for militants, and that is why Washington is not letting up on the pressure, it said.

Washington is also aware that US warplanes engaged in combat exercises with the Indian Air Force will catch Musharraf's attention, "perhaps prompting him to stop procrastinating and initiate the `get Osama' operation." "The exercises are a reminder that Washington has New Delhi on reserve should border operations go badly or in case Musharraf fails to keep domestic order in the wake of nuclear and Al Qaeda related matters." Beyond the United States' short-term need for Pakistan as a tactical ally to flush Al Qaeda from South West Asia, Washington clearly views India as a long-term strategic ally to counter Chinese plans to advance as a regional and global player, to maintain security in the Indian Ocean and to help keep West Asian oil flowing, the analysts concluded.

"Because India is a democratic, technologically skilled nation with enormous potential, the Bush administration saw it fit to join forces with New Delhi in missile, nuclear, space and other high-tech fields." The Musharraf regime also must be seen as impotent, it said.

US-Israeli actions against fellow Muslims might not be enough to move Pakistanis to action, but the sight of US-Indian preparations to attack Pakistan while its government fails to respond could spur millions into action.

A deep sense already runs through the country that the ruling civil-military elite is incapable of defending Pakistan from foreign attack, StratFor said, "Al Qaeda would like to create a mass rising against Musharraf's regime, but just what it will or can do about it remains unclear.

What is certain, however, is that increased US-Pakistani cooperation challenges Al Qaeda.

At the same time, US-Indian cooperation forces Pakistan to either cave to US demands to go all out against the jihadists, or to face the consequences.

As of now, the ball is in Musharraf's court."