Musharraf hostage to war on second coup anniversary

ISLAMABAD, Oct 13 (Reuters): Pakistans military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, reached the second anniversary of his seizure of power yesterday with his future hostage to the high-risk war in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Although Musharraf has so far faced only limited domestic protests against his abrupt withdrawal of support for Afghanistans ruling Taliban, the Pakistani capital today sports detachments of troops and sandbag-reinforced bunkers near intersections and sensitive buildings.

"In the general public there is an apprehension that what is happening in Afghanistan may have a fallout in Pakistan," major-general Rashid Qureshi, the government spokesman, told Reuters after the country was swept this week by unfounded rumours of a coup against Musharraf.

If the man who came to power himself in a coup can survive the US,led war against Afghanistan without serious internal problems, he is likely to emerge a vastly strengthened ruler with solid backing abroad and unquestioned dominance at home.

According to Musharrafs timetable for a return to democracy , greeted with scepticism when outlined in August but now praised by foreign governments , elections for a restored parliament will be held in one year.

The 58-year-old general intends to stay on as a powerful president.

If, instead, he becomes a victim of the conflict to force the Taliban to hand over Saudi-born fugitive Osama bin Laden, suspected by Washington of masterminding the September 11 attacks on the United States, Pakistan would face an unstable future.

The evidence so far points to his survival.

Five people died in demonstrations in the first two days after USand British bombing of Afghanistan began on Sunday in retaliation for last months attacks, but protests dwindled as the week went on.

However, the government said it would tolerate no violent protests after midday prayers on Friday, which creates a natural concentration of people.

It threatened any of the more than two million Afghan refugees in Pakistan with deportation if they participated.

US Secretary of state Colin Powell, who is due in Pakistan next week, revealed on Thursday the unease about a country that is vital to the United States for pursuing the war against the Taliban.

"Our view is that the consolidation of stability in Pakistan has been quicker and greater than we had originally expected and better than the government of Pakistan had expected originally," Powell said in Washington.

"The confidence with which president Musharraf is moving forward, the alacrity with which he welcomed the visit of the secretary, also did indicate to me that to the extent there are tensions , and there are , theyre manageable." Foremost among the sources of tension are the demonstrations called by pro-Taliban Islamic leaders, angered that Musharraf has sided with the United States and abandoned the Taliban leaders Pakistan once helped to power.

There have also been heavy economic costs to Pakistan.

The world bank estimated in advance of a visit to Washington this week by Pakistans finance minister, Shaukat Aziz, that the damage this year alone would be at least 1 billion.

Set against that, governments around the world have showered grants on Musharrafs government, rescheduled debt and lifted sanctions imposed on Pakistan during more than a decade of increasing isolation.

Aziz has begun discussing new aid from the international monetary fund, the World Bank and the US government.

While Pakistans economic performance under Musharraf would have drawn support in any case, now it is considered urgent to show backing for a man who had once been shunned for seizing power.

"We have been immensely impressed by Pakistans reform program which started two years ago," World Bank president James Wolfensohn said in a statement for Thursdays meeting with Aziz.

Of course, right now, as the country faces a particularly challenging period, we will be there to help it keep that reform program on track." The aid lavished on Musharraf for switching support from the Taliban to Washington will give him vital breathing space to try to reshape an economy seemingly caught in a downward spiral.

Provided he can keep a lid on the political pressures building up as a result of the war, Musharraf should also be able to cement the power he seized when former prime minister Nawas Sharif tried to fire him as army chief two years ago.

This week he strengthened his hold over the armed forces, reshuffling senior staff to sideline generals who backed his coup but were considered sympathetic to the Taliban and Islamic militants at home.

And if the Islamic parties fail to show the strength they have claimed, Musharraf will come out of this crisis with a more powerful central government.

In a country where the government has seemed unable to enforce its will, whether in taxation or law enforcement, that may be the most important prize in the balance as Musharraf watches the war next door.