POLITICAL DELICACIES
Hard bargaining by SP, others By Noora Chopra A cabinet reshuffle and an AICC revamp is on the cards.
In an attempt to save his government and fulfill the commitment to US President George Bush on the Indo-US civil nuclear deal, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is working to get the numbers right.
If the buzz is anything to go by, Singh will have to pay a heavy price for support from the Samajwadi Party, Ajit Singh-led RLD, JD(S) headed by Deve Gowda, Shibu Soren (JMM) and even independents.
Every one is haggling for ministerial berths.
Samajwadi Party wants four ministerial berths - two cabinet posts and two Ministers of State.
Ajit Singh wants two, one cabinet minister post and one MOS; JDS too wants at least one and Shibu wants his coal ministry back.
Mulayam is said to be bargaining with the Congress to back him as the Prime Minister if third front were to be in a position to form the government, post Lok Sabha elections.
The buzz is that Amar Singh is said to have an eye on Petroleum Ministry.
Congress is talking to Bhajan Lal's son, Kuldip Singh Bhishnoi, too.
Though he has been expelled from the party, he has not been disqualified so far.
If these leaders succeed in striking a deal with Manmohan Singh, a Cabinet reshuffle will become imminent.
It is possible that several Congress ministers may be packed off to the party organisation.
Priya Ranjan Das Munshi, Saifuddin Soz, Oscar Fernandes, Prithviraj Chauhan, Ajay Maken and Shakeel Ahmad are already holding dual posts.
Rahul Broke The Ice Guess who broke the ice with Samajwadi Party? It was Rahul Gandhi who met SP president Mulayam Singh Yadav's son, Akhilesh Yadav.
Things started falling in place after this meeting, says the buzz.
.Amar Singh was summoned from US to carry forward the talks with the Congress.
The grapevine also has it that it was on Rahul's insistence that Congress President Sonia Gandhi agreed to support the PM on the Indo-US deal and issued instructions to the party to back him.
Rahul's team comprises boys who have graduated from US colleges.
Kanishka Singh, Sachin Rao and Anand Adkoli have all studied in US.
Scare At AICC Speculation is rife in Congress headquarters at 24 Akbar Road that in view of the Antony Committee recommendations, all AICC general secretaries, secretaries and other office-bearers should voluntarily resign from their respective posts giving a free hand to Congress President Sonia Gandhi to revamp the party.
Pressure has mounted on the leadership to go to the polls with a new team.
If the buzz is to be believed, Sonia Gandhi's political secretary Ahmad Patel is also under pressure to resign.
It is seen as a fresh move by Patel's detractors to push him out.
The Congress Working Committee is likely to discuss the present political situation either on Saturday or Sunday before the PM leaves for G8 summit in Tokyo.
Notice To Shekhawat Former Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat has been served a notice by chairman of the Rajya Sabha House Committee JP Agarwal for continuing to occupy bungalow number 12 on Teen Murti Lane.
It had been allotted to him when he was the Chairman of Rajya Sabha.
As per the notice, bungalow No.
12 on Teen Murti Lane was placed at the disposal of the then chairman of the Rajya Sabha for use as office-cum-guest accommodation on 14.2.2006 with facilities of rent free accommodation, payment of electricity and water dues by Rajya Sabha secretariat and maintenance by CPWD.
In the letter, Agarwal has said that , according to rules, no powers have been designated to Chairman of the House Committee or Secretary General of the Rajya Sabha to provide rent-free accommodation with facilities like electricity and water and maintenance by the CPWD to any dignitary or Rajya Sabha member except his government accommodation for residential use .This being the case, the former Rajya Sabha chairman is liable to pay the rent of this bungalow and payment of electricity and water dues for the period when he occupied this additional accommodation.
He is also liable to pay the rent of bungalow No.
12 on Teenmurti Lane, which he is occupying.
By George, He Is Still Powerful! If the leaders who attended the wedding of the son of Vincent George, former private secretary of Rajiv Gandhi and then Sonia Gandhi are any guide, George continues to wield power.
Except for Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, more than a dozen union ministers and over a dozen office bearers of AICC flew to Kochi on June 30 to attend the wedding.
Among those present were Petroleum, Minister Murli Deora, Panchayati Raj Minister Mani Shankar Aiyer, Labour Minister Oscar Fernandes, Minister for Social Empowerment Meira Kumar, Minister of State Rao Inderjit Singh, Ashwini Kumar, Pallam Raju, Muniyappa, former chief minister of Chhattisgarh Ajit Jogi and K.
The PCC chiefs who made it to the wedding were Ramesh Chennithala, Suresh Pachauri and Rita Bahuguna.
AICC office-bearers and secretaries like Manish Tiwari, Mabel Rebello, Irshad Beg, Imran Kidwai, Major Dalbir and Ranji Thomas were also there.
George's political clout can be judged from the fact that even allies flew to attend the wedding.
Union Health Minister A.
Ramadoss, Prem Gupta of RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan were also seen wishing the newly wedded couple.
Advani Annoys RSS, VHP The RSS and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad leaders are upset over the absence of LK Advani from the meeting held by the BJP to take stock of the Amarnath Yatra issue.
The party was told by Advani supporters that he was in Bhopal.
But the grapevine has it that Advani had returned to Delhi by 11 am while the meeting was scheduled for 4 pm.
It is said that Advani preferred to stay away from the meeting as he is working hard to change his image from a communal hardliner to a secular leader on the lines of Vajpayee.
What amazed those present at the meeting further was the 'return' of Murli Manohar Joshi.
Joshi, who had been sidelined for several years, was given a place on the podium in place of Advani.
There were three chairs on the dais: one for party president Rajnath Singh, one for Jaswant Singh and the third for LK Advani.
But when Advani failed to turn up, Joshi was asked to take the seat.
The question now being asked is, what is up the RSS sleeve? Can Joshi replace Advani? -(IPA) UPA government fumbling more than ever By S.
Sethuraman India's high growth story has now receded to the background with the onslaught of double-digit inflation while the Congress leadership of the UPA Government has worked itself up to clinch the Indo-US nuclear deal, whatever be its political consequences including a possible earlier dissolution of the 14th Lok Sabha for elections, ahead of the May 2009 deadline.
The Left, stubbornly opposed to the deal, has threatened to withdraw its support to Government if it went ahead with the agreement negotiated with IAEA on India-specific safeguards, a major step toward operationalisation of the nuclear deal.
It will choose its own timing to reduce the UPA Government to a minority status but the Congress hopes to rope in the Samajwadi Party to its rescue.
Allies sharing power in the UPA Government are not in favour of early elections and preferred a consensus on the nuclear deal with the Left on board.
Meanwhile, the Congress President Ms.
Sonia Gandhi's call on her partymen to prepare for elections at the state level in coming months as well at the national level underlined the determination of the party to back Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh who seems eager to give out positive signals when he meets President Bush on the sidelines of the G-8 Summit in Hokkaido (July 7-9).
The Left has resisted the deal and held it up as long as possible mainly basing its objections on the foreign policy implications of the deal, which is viewed by the Bush Administration as a global strategic alliance with India.
For its part, the UPA Government touts the contribution from the deal to the country's long-term energy security and ending "nuclear isolation" if the deal gets through with the next stages before the US Congressional approval.
The negotiated draft agreement with IAEA has not been shared with Left raising its concerns further, and the Prime Minister has now offered to take the "sense of the House" before putting the deal into operation, i.e.
the deal as it emerges after it goes through US Congress.
Government had ignored the majority view in Parliament when the deal was debated in both Houses over the last two years.
It must now be reckoning that, given the "interest" in the country, (as the Prime Minister notes), the deal could be safely placed before Parliament on a "take it or leave" basis and get it consummated.
The Congress leadership has already begun working out its own strategy for Government's survival, mainly relying on the 39-member Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, with whom it has been building bridges for support, after an estrangement of the past four years.
If the Left pulls the plug in the near future, the Congress expects it would be able to weather any motion of no-confidence that BJP, which has begun its election campaign, might bring forward in the monsoon session of Parliament.
The Indian scene has dramatically changed with explosive political developments under way while inflation, on a relentless march, is hitting hard businesses and the people at large.
There is a palpable sense of resignation in the Government to the unfolding economic developments while analysts at home and institutions abroad expect high inflation and overall growth slowdown are inescapable in 2008 and maybe even beyond.
This gloomy assessment stems from the global oil prices on a continuous rise and already past the 143 dollar a barrel mark.
Inflation worldwide is now led mainly by energy prices and, to some extent, by food and metal prices, which are already at record levels.
Government economists in India assume that the double- digit inflation, which could even reach 13-14 per cent in the next few weeks (from 11.45 per cent in the week ended June 14), would begin to moderate by October.
By then, kharif crops ready for harvest would have benefited from the "near normal" monsoon forecast for 2008, and supply position would have improved to have a softening effect on the general price level, it is assumed.
But oil and metal prices would continue to trigger concerns for a longer period even taking into account the lagged effects of fiscal and monetary measures mounted so far since March last.
The Congress, battered in a series of state elections, needs an environment of lower inflation and improved supply management before venturing to seek a new mandate.
The efforts at the political level are to delay elections as long as possible, at any rate, till the end of 2008.
However, there is no getting away from the destabilising impact on economy of the rampant inflation which is no doubt sought to be controlled by aggressive monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India which had raised the repo and CRR rates to 8.5 and 8.75 per cent effective July 1.
Commercial banks are raising the prime lending rates by 50 basis points at least and home, car and other retail loans would become dearer.
Millions of depositors have suffered from inflation with their yields turning too negative.
Rising interest rates are giving a big cost push for manufactures and services which could translate into higher prices and this could eventually lower demand for goods and result in some easing of inflationary pressures.
The economy has to make a soft landing if it is to avoid even a mild recession.
RBI's justified monetary tightening of recent weeks, designed more to contain inflation expectations, may not help to reverse the tide in the near future while, on the other hand, the rise in interest rates would dampen investment sentiment and deferment of capacity expansion in manufactures..
Metal prices, especially steel, would firm up given the rise in the input costs, coke and iron ore.
It is now globally acknowledged that all countries may have to live with elevated energy, food and other commodity prices for a longer period.
Thus, most countries including Asian would be unable to arrest high inflation, which would do damage to macro-economic fundamentals even for countries like India which has had a four-year run of robust growth averaging around 9 per cent.
India's growth estimates for 2008-09 by different agencies, national and international, are in the 7 to 8 per cent range while official estimates stand at 8 to 8.5 per cent.
But what is of greater concern is the likely deterioration in India's fiscal consolidation efforts and economists see a stiff rise in fiscal deficit at the end of the current fiscal year as against the budgeted 2.5 per cent of GDP.
It is oil prices that are devastating economies of poorer countries and OPEC attributes the elevated prices to falling US dollar and speculation, and has rejected US calls for greater production contending that the market is currently well supplied.
The cartel has also turned down Finance Minister Mr.
Chidambaram's plea for a pricing band.
Emerging economies and the considerably worse off other developing countries have to manage their economies in conditions of unabated rise in commodity prices against the background of continuing global financial market instability, growth slowdown and inflationary surge worldwide.