"Quakes can't be accurately predicted but good disaster management can mimimise damages"
KT NEWS SERVICE SRINAGAR, Oct 29: Earth under the mighty Himalayas may have the potential to rumble again, but some experts here feel while threat cannot be altered, disaster management minimise large scale destruction.
Says Professor Rayees Ahmad who teaches Geography in Kashmir University, "It is true that the Himalayan region is prone to earthquakes, but it doesn't mean that one can accurately predict when an high intensity quake will occur ".
He further says, "There is no cause for worry and the people should not develop an obsession regarding earthquakes...
it is right that Jammu and Kashmir lies in a seismic zone, but it should not prevent people to carry out their normal activities".
"No technology has so far been invented which could predict the occurrence of an earthquake...
had it been so, Japan and Italy, which face the constant threats of earthquakes, would have been doing it being the developed and technologically advanced countries", Professor Rayees added.
According to him a preventive mechanism should be put in place which includes disaster management at district, tehsil and local levels.
"Recently we saw in Mumbai, everything got disrupted when the city was flooded...
had there been an effective disaster management mechanism in place, it would not have happened", he stressed.
Professor Nasir Mirza, Head department MERC, University of Kashmir agrees.
He says, "There has to be a separate department for disaster management which should have its job cut out...
the department can regularly take stock of the situation and make preparations for any sort of disaster".
According to him the recent earthquake is an eye opener for both the people and the government.
"Earlier people used too say that Kashmir is sitting on volcano, some people would get the impression that experts are referring to the political problem of Kashmir given the turmoil situation.
Many would believe that it is said since Kashmir is a nuclear flash point between India and Pakistan which are the nuclear powers", he observed.
"There is an adage that earthquakes do not kill the people, but buildings kill...
this is what causes causalities.
If we examine the buildings in Kashmir, they are all virtually death traps.
People need to be given expert advice for raising earthquake-prone structures", believes Professor Mirza.
He said that mass awareness programmes should be launched in schools, colleges and universities.
A national weekly magazine recently carried out a story in which it had dwelled upon the probability of earthquakes in India in detail.
"The earthquake on October 8 took place as a result of the Indian plate moving under the Eurasian plate and rotating slowly anti-clockwise.
India, one should remember, is moving at a rate of 40mm every year and pushes against Tibet", said the magazine quoting a Geologist V C Thakur.
The story said that the Himalayan region falls along the boundaries of the plates and experts fear a greater quake (magnitude of 8 plus) is overdue in north India.
Quoting Thakur, the story added, "The segment of the Himalayan region including Kashmir, has a past history in earthquakes: 25 AD - Taxila, 1550 - Kashmir valley, 1878 - Abbotabad and 1885 in Kashmir again".
It went on to say, "Three Richter 8 quakes have been predicted by some seismologists in the Himalayan region, which includes Kashmir, Himachal Pardesh, Uttaranchal, Nepal, UP, Bihar, Assam and Sikkim.
The seismologists have traced it to the maximum stress which is being building up at the edges of the Indian plate as it moves northward into the Eurasian plate, which eventually finds release in quakes".
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