UP faces four-cornered contests in LS polls
By Arun Nehru UP with 80 seats is crucial and I have factored into the figures a BJP/Kalyan Singh alliance, a BSP/Congress agreement and the SP/RLD combination.
The prospects of a four way fight cannot be written off as all concerned will take decisions as trends become clear.
The trend in the North is clear as the BJP/NDA surge ahead and the states of UP/Bihar cannot be immune to this factor the BJP agreement with Kalyan Singh is crucial as besides the Lodh base he knows the state and every seat better than most people and without doubt his 'direct' intervention will give the BJP benefit of 5-8 seats.
The SP is under pressure and clearly the RLD is watching events, and Sonia meeting Mayawati in secret and her comments at the recent press 'lunch show the desperation of the Congress for an alliance and clearly without this and a hostile SP there are very poor prospects in UP.
The secret meeting will have obvious implications on the SP chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav and clearly VP Singh along with the Left favour the BSP combination but they have little influence with Mayawati and she knows her politics.
The SP supremo, Mulayam Singh Yadav is not trusted and after all despite a 'majority' of MPs in his favour it was HD Deve Gowda and then IK Gujral who was made the PM and Mulayam Singh is unlikely to forgive or forget this historical blunder and this is apparent as he visits Bihar and lashes out at Laloo Yadav and the law and order situation in Bihar.
Mayawati can do without the Congress and hold or gain in a four way fight but the Congress has much to lose and can come down to two or three seats but Mayawati will keep the options open with flowers, cakes and dinner meetings.
The BSP like many others can also see the 'feel good' Atal factor and will wait for the numbers game after the elections.
Mulayam Singh and Mayawati are considered 'unreliable' on all sides but in all fairness to them are they doing anything which the BJP/Congress are not doing for political relevance.
The Congress made and broke alliances, four governments were demolished in rapid succession as defections were encouraged and the VP Singh government fell followed by Chandrasekharji, HD Deve Gowda and then IK Gujral leaving a large number of former PMs in the system at a huge public cost.
The BJP has aligned with the BSP and the SP has aligned with the Congress and the BSP, the Congress has aligned with the SP whilst the Left need a seat or two and have little else to contribute in the state and none of these alliances have resulted in any form of stability in the state.
Difficult decisions lie ahead and if the 'positive' trends intensify there may be a flurry of agreements in the offing and remember it takes only a 3-5% swing to create electoral havoc.
The Congress talks with the TRS start again in AP and this could bring the TDP/BJP tally down by three four seats and the situation is still not clear in Haryana where a BJP/HVC alliance can change things and in Assam there is still confusion and a three way fight will suit the Congress and this has been factored in the charts.
The elections may well take place from the middle/end April in three or four stages and I don't think this will make much difference and all the leaders will have adequate time to make their presence felt.
The crucial point will be that Atalji leads the BJP/NDA but who leads the Congress alliance/Left combination? The leadership issue is crucial and look at Delhi where Shiela Dixit pulled off a stunning victory was this possible if Prem Singh was the leader! The public is always a step ahead of the politicians and it would be fatal to ignore the obvious.