US Muslims set to defeat Bush in November election: Stratfor

WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (UNI): Despite misgivings about presidential challenger John Kerry's policies towards Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, US Muslims are expected to vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats in the November elections.

Their voting trends were revealed in recent polls conducted by the Arab American Institute in the swing states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Fifty-one per cent of Muslims said they would vote for Kerry, 24 per cent for President George Bush and 17 per cent for independent Ralph Nader.

A similar survey by the Michigan-based Institute for Social Policy and Understanding found that 85 per cent of Muslims disapproved of President Bush's performance.

The overriding issue in this election is civil liberties for US Muslims, who feel they have been unfairly targeted by the Bush administration's counter-terrorism policies in the aftermath of September 11.

However, a section of Muslims, especially those of Pakistan origin, are apprehensive about problems that Mr Kerry's foreign policy would pose for countries such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

"These apprehensions are not only because the average US Muslim voter is a social conservative, but also because of the fear that a Kerry administration _ in an attempt to get tough on al Qaeda _ might adopt policies that will harm Muslim states such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan," according to analysts at Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor).

US Muslim population is estimated at 7 million, with potential voters pegged between 2.7 and 3 million.

And because only 60 per cent of eligible voters are registered, the actual number of those who could vote is no more than 1.6 million.

Generally religious conservatives, Muslims have tended in the past to throw their lot with the Republican party, especially on issues such as homosexuality, abortion and the role of religion in public life.

"The statistics highlighting resentment toward incumbent Bush are therefore not just paradoxical but staggering _ considering that some 78 per cent of the Muslim-American vote is believed to have gone in favor of the Bush-Cheney ticket in 2000," Stratfor said.

The Muslim community in the US is divided between immigrant and indigenous Muslims.

Forty per cent of the Muslim population is indigenous, composed of African-Americans, Latin-Americans and white converts.

This community disproportionately tends to vote for the Democratic Party, as opposed to the immigrant community, which is financially in the upper income brackets and is concerned more about overseas policy issues.

The war against terrorism and the war against Iraq are the two primary reasons for the immigrant Muslim electorate's moving away from the Republican Party.

"Muslim voters _ both immigrant and indigenous _ see the Bush administration as unfavorable for their civil liberties at home.

They also have misgivings because of the war in Iraq, which many Muslims feel was unjustified because of the absence of any credible link between al Qaeda and the regime of Saddam Hussein," the analysts said.

However, this anti-Bush sentiment may not automatically translate into more votes for Kerry.

Kerry's tough talk about action against Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan and the fact that many Muslims see the Democratic Party as disproportionately pro-Israel and pro-India, will prevent en masse transfer of votes to the Democrats.

"This attitude is far more pronounced among immigrant Muslims," contends Stratfor.

Beneath their "Islamic" identity, immigrant Muslims identify themselves as Pakistani-Americans and Arab-Americans.

"While they agree a Kerry administration could be good for their well-being in terms of domestic civil liberties _ Muslims will be less likely to face an aggressive law enforcement process seeking out suspected al Qaeda-linked militants _ they are divided in the fears of what could happen to their respective home countries with Kerry as president." For example, Stratfor said, leading Pakistani-Americans think the Bush administration has been good for Pakistan _ a view shared by Islamabad _ and are engaged in campaigning for the Bush-Cheney ticket.

Then there is the issue of how a Kerry administration would weigh in on the Palestinian issue.

Kerry has maintained a staunch pro-Israeli attitude throughout his campaign.

Still there are others who believe the concerns of US Muslims take priority over foreign policy issues.

It is unclear whether the Muslim vote will swing in favor of one side _ this time, despite misgivings within the Muslim electorate, the favourite seems to be the Democratic Party.

"What is clear is that given how close the presidential race is expected to be, the Muslim vote could make the difference," the analysts said.