Bose Thrice in the last three weeks president Musharraf has changed his tone and stand on Kashmir.
Toward the end of March he suddenly struck a discordant note amidst the chorus of growing Indo-Pak bon homie by telling a group of Pak newsmen that, every thing said the done, Kashmir remains at the core of all disputes and negotiations with India, and if no visible progress is achieved on that all-important front by July-August, when our foreign secretaries are expected to meet, then he would be out of the process.
When our MEA discreetly told their Pak counterpart that such a statement from him was not conducive to the continued improvement of Indo-Pak relations Islamabad warmly responded by asserting that not too much of importance should be attached to such a statement before the press.
Soon thereafter even dates for a technical level discussions on the Uri-Muzaffarabad road were also decided.
A few days later, to the satisfaction of all concerned, President Musharraf, in the presence of Prime Minister Jamali, told a gathering at Islamabad that he was determined to pursue the peace process to its desirable end, and would not allow any road-block to impede the progress.
Every thing again appeared hunky dori.
But, apparently, that too was not to last long.
On Saturday, the 10th of April, speaking to the out-going cadets of the 26th Integrated Course at Pak Military Academy at Kaul, Musharraf again asserted, "We will never compromise on our vital national interests in Kashmir and our nuclear assets." Such, obviously, contradictory statements almost every week from virtually the only person who counts in Pakistan have reduced their foreign policy vis-a-vis India and Kashmir into an enigma.
Apparently, it is almost impossible to be sure about what Islamabad actually means and how far they are ready to go ahead with India in our joint quest for peace.
Given the continued killings in Kashmir--even though the snow in most of the passes utilised by the mujaheedin has not yet melted--and such statements occasionally emanating from Islamabad it is, apparently, very difficult to gauge what is her present relation with the fidayeen groups, and how far they are going to be accommodative of India's demands.
However, if only one looks beneath the surface, one is likely to find that Musharraf, in his own and his country's interest, remains committed to peace was ever.
He knows what he told the out-going cadets on 10th that non-resolution of disputes between neighbouring states over the past five decades had been the major cause of backwardness in the entire South Asian region, and Pakistan, he knows, is the worst sufferer of this arms race.
Peace, he knows, is essential not only for Pakistan's progress but also for her very survival as a state in its present form.
He has also discovered in the last six months the growing size and strength of the peace constituency in his won country.
The majority of Pakistanis now are prepared to put the fifty-year old Kashmir dispute into a cold-storage, reduce the wasteful arms race, and to enjoy the opportunities of free trade, free travel, and free exchange of views.
By tapping their strength and support he is keen on taking on the religious terrorists, who effectively challenge his position by operating as states within a state, through concerted acts of black-mail and defiance.
His boyhood hero was Kamal Ataturk and he still remains his hero, and like him he is keen on moulding Pakistan into a progressive modern state, and not into a dreaded den of druggists and international terrorists.
However, given the mind-set of many in the Pak bureaucracy and the military head-quarters and the influence these religious militant groups exercise over them and on the crowds in the streets, it is still too early for one to expect Musharraf ignore them totally.
For over fifty years Pakistanis have been brain-washed to believe that ensuring self-determination to their Muslim cousins in Kashmir is their God-given mission, which no one claiming to be their ruler should give up.
Even those seeking peace demand it, in their own words, along with honour.
By this they mean that Pakistan must not appear to be a loser at the negotiation table, and must not betray the Kashmiris by giving up the demand of self-determination for the latter.
So, Musharraf to remain in power, must not appear weak in any negotiation over Kashmir.
But, he also knows that no one in New Delhi can afford to agree to holding a plebiscite in Kashmir to ensure self-determination for the people there.
So, if oral reports and newspaper are in any guide, Islamabad is now keen on re-uniting the Hurriyat leadership--they have welcomed Shabir Shah's joining the APHC (A) and are trying for the latter's rapprochement with Geelani--and to see them arrive at a settlement with New Delhi.
If the so-called separatists, on their own, arrive at a settlement with the Government of India then only it may be possible for Musharraf to tell their patrons at home that the Kashmiris have exercised their inherent right to self-determination in their own way, and Pakistani no longer need to bother about their future.
So, to arrive at the desired goal of peace with India, he has to talk tough, appear strong, and champion the Kashmiris' right to self-determination.
New Delhi should understand his compulsions as well as his ultimate commitment, and patiently ignore many of his bellicose statements and inflexible demands to enable him reach a settlement both the countries have in view.
He needs our help to convince his countrymen that peace has been secured, while nothing has been surrendered.
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While every effort has been made to ensure that the information hosted on this website is accurate CHAIRMAN: VED BHASIN Kashmir Times Group of Publications Edited, printed and published by Prabodh Jamwal Editor-in-Chief, The Kashmir Times, Residency Road, Jammu, J&K, INDIA.
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