Bose When the top mandarins of the MEAs of India and Pakistan are meeting at Islamabad to talk about talks at a future date it is time that one should both look back and ahead to assess the prospects of peace.
A senior MEA official has warned us not to expect too much from the talks just initiated, last we end up in frustration and mutual recrimination, thus losing much of the ground we have gained in the last few months.
In fact, despite all the hype over the recent gains for peace, the fact remains that till date we have only reached where we were before 13 December 2001.
Any progress beyond that historic check-point is a challenging task, and it can be accomplished only if both the parties are keen on the capable of bull-dozing over the road-blocks that lie ahead.
Even when the leadership seeks accommodation it may not be often possible for them to practise it in public.
So, one often has to look beyond the will of the other party to explore what and how much are they able to deliver, and that is exactly what we in India must do with objectivity befor succumbing to the euphoria over the prospects of peace.
After all, from the Indian side, the basis of the joint communique of 6 January and our willingness for a comprehensive talk is our trust in President Musharraf's assurance--rather re-assurance--that his government would not allow the territory under their control to be used by any group for promoting anti-Indian activity.
Even in the recent past we had rejected such re-assurances and had asked Islamabad to, first, show some result on the ground and then to think of any Indo-Pak talk.
On and since the 6th of January, however, we have agreed to trust his assurance and to go ahead with talks evern though the incident of militants' strikes in our state has not recorded any visible fall.
So, it is time also to assess how far can Musharraf or any one in his seat really hold those wild elements, they have nursed for long, in the leash? The record so far, unfortunately, is not very encouraging.
First, let us think of Musharraf's widely-acclaimed declaration about a 'Jehad against Jehadis.' It is common knowledge that the roots of Jehad are to be found in the thousands of Deeni Madrassas that dot the country and provide free education and often meals to their pupils.
A recent study by their Institute of Policy studies shows that a very high percentage of the madrasa pupils are seething with hatered for other sects even within Islam and are prepared to take to the gun to eliminate them from their country.
Only last month the federal government announced a grant of Rs 5.7 billion for the reform of madrassas on secular lines by introducing modern subjects with a uniform curricula.
But, all the five madrassa board have rejected outright the government's efforts at controlling their course content, but have asked for more funds for meeting their electricity charges and telephone facilities.
Yet, till date, there has not been issued any order banning the continuance of such madrassas.
On 18 August 2001 Islambad issued an ordinance for setting up a Pakistan Madrassas Education Board, and it was constituted on 8 September.
But, since then only three so-called model madrassas have been set up.
So much for Musharraf's success in controlling the madrassas and maulvis.
We do not wish to question his sincerity and commitment to modernity and peace, but the question is how far can he go? Even the Al Qaeda was banned in Pakistan as late as in March 2003, and the all powerful patron of Pakistan believes that both Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar are hiding some where in Pakistan, obviously in connivance with some powerful elements in their bureaucracy and local politics.
Has Islamabad succeeded so far in asserting itself over these recalcitrant elements? If their American patrons had not taken them seriously to task for not having banned Al Qaeda till March, last year, it means that they too accept the limits which their protege in arm uniform cannot cross with impunity.
Right from the early months of the year 2000 Musharraf has been occasionally speaking out against the Jehadi elements, threatening actions against them after any significant murderous incident at home, and have also taken into custody their religious leaders.
But, it is also a fact, that those arrested have always been released within months, and the banned outfits have been allowed to function with changed names.
So, far no such Jehadi outfit has been effectively banned, their bank account sealed, and their leaders put behind the bars.
In fact, one such militant Maulana Azim Tariq was allowed to contest the elections of October 2002, although he did not fulfil the minimum educational qualification.
In fact, the madrassas received indirect recognition the day Islamabad accepted the certificates from these madrassas as equivalent to a university degree.
Many of these Jehadi groups have been banned for the second time in December 2003, but their members are still free as faceless activists of nameless organisations, even on 13 Dec 2003 Nancy Powell, the US Ambassadaress, expressed alarm at the recent resurgence of religious militancy in Pakistan which " pose a serious threat to Pakistan, to the region, and to the US." So, there are very firm limits that Islamabad even now may not be able to cross, even if they have the sincerest wish for it.
Taking this account, India must limit her expectations and must not lower her guard.
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