The emergence of Pakistan as the biggest customer of the Chinese military industrial complex (C-MIC) has added another element of complexity in the region because it directly impinges on China-India relations
The Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s received a thunderous welcome on his two day-state visits to Pakistan. He was chaperoned into Pakistani airspace by six JF-17 Thunder fighters of the Pakistan Air Force.
The use of the Chinese built JF-17 marks the end of the F-16 obsession in Pakistani strategic affairs. It also announces Islamabad as a non-aligned player in the Sino-American tussle. In 1961, Nehru’s purchase of MIG21 from Soviet Union - despite his close linkages with US ambassador to India JK Galbraith and President Kennedy - declared India as neutral in the Cold War.
Borrowing from Polish economist Michel Kalecki’s concept of non-alignment - the Pakistani elite wants to adopt the smart calf strategy of suckling two cows simultaneously - buying cheap Chinese weapons and using US government’s IMET (International Military Education Training) programmes to maintain rapport with their masters in Pentagon. The total US military aid to Pakistan in 2010 stood at $ $2.5bn - including $1.2bn in coalition support funds.[1]
For how long will the US allow Islamabad to use the dollar-aid to purchase Chinese weapons? Alternatively, US may allow Pakistan to flow deeper into the Chinese fold, if only to make India cringe and yearn for America.
Before, Pakistan can expect its bilateral trade with China to reach US$ 15 billion and beyond, it will have to shed its strategic ambivalence. On the one hand, its soil is allowed to be used as a killing ground by US drones. On the other hand, it blames the US for fishing out Osama-bin-Laden from its territory.
The nuances of neutrality do not permit partaking of any military alliance. Apart from reducing the role of Pakistan army in domestic politics, the newly elected representatives must also ensure that Pakistan gradually breaks away from its military engagements with USA and NATO. It cannot allow its cities to be used as a military headquarters for US forces. Recently, the US Army Corps of Engineer has been granted permission to build a Tactical Command and Operations Centre (TCOC) compound at the Jinnah International Airport (JIAP)[2].
India’s neutrality rested on a judicious mix of Soviet hardware and Western military ethos. Contrary to popular perceptions about the socialist proclivity of Tito, Nehru, Naseer and Sukarno, these stalwarts were wedded to Western financial structures - USAID and the Bretton Woods twins. The only distinguishing feature was that the tall leaders of the non-aligned world refrained from formally joining any military alliance.
The Indian strategic community that keeps complaining about the centrality of Gwadar port in the growing China-Pakistan nexus must also see the infrastructure projects of the US military in the heart of Islamabad. The construction of the expanded US embassy in Islamabad, (much like the Iraqi green zone) started last year. The proposed expansion project spread over 43 acres, is likely to be completed by 2017. The state of the art high-tech embassy compound will be in very close proximity of a new media city and a 25-storey Grand Hyatt Hotel being built by The Capital Development Authority (CDA) of Pakistan. The $1 billion worth new fortresses is likely to accommodate roughly 1750h US personnel including marines - roughly 1400 personnel more than the sanctioned strength of 350.[3]
The emergence of Pakistan as the biggest customer of the Chinese military industrial complex (C-MIC) has added another element of complexity in the region because it directly impinges on China-India relations. If China genuinely wants to give a fresh boost to South-South cooperation, then firstly it needs to make sure that the C-MIC does not grow into a monster that pitches for more profits through more wars in the region. Secondly, Beijing must use its influence on Pakistan to improve its relations with India. Needless to mention, certain sections in India too need to introspect vis-à-vis their general attitude and approach towards China.
China is keen to use the combined strength of 2.5 billion people from the India-China region to reshape the global power equations. Many among the Indian elite with their vested interests well-entrenched in Western capitals want India-China to keep fluttering their claws at each other and India-Pakistan Asia to remain in a perpetual state of fear and flux.
During Premier Li’s stay in New Delhi, India’s Essar Oil, a division of London-listed Essar Energy signed “an agreement with CDB (China Development Bank) to raise $1 billion by way of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) from the Chinese banking system. In return, Petro China will sign a long-term 'off take' agreement with Essar for 7 to 10 years for a fixed quantum of products linked to the loan amount.”[4]
Interestingly, in the same period when the Essar-CAD agreement was being inked, it was alleged in the Indian media that Essar was to get Rs 2,000 crores for facilitating the settlement of all legal matters pertaining to Vodafone’s tax liability of Rs11,217 crore.[5] Rivalry between big business houses appears to be casting its shadow on Indo-China relations. As the economic angle becomes discernible the Beijing-New Delhi matrix will no longer remain trapped in territory or some grand strategic calculus.
For decades our dollar-obsessed elite have been travelling to the west with a begging bowl. Now that China has brought that money at our doorstep, why shun it? Centuries old wisdom proclaimed by Hindu businessmen says, “Ghaar aai Lakshmi ko kabhi nahi thukrate” (never close your door on Lakshmi, the Goddess of wealth).
Notes:
[1] “Sixty years of US aid to Pakistan: Get the data”, Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan
[2]Mateen Haider, “US Army Corps ‘to operate from Karachi airport’”, Dawn, 26 February, 2013 http://dawn.com/2013/02/26/us-army-corps-to-operate-from-karachi-airport/
[3] Baquir Sajjad Syed, “US plans for bigger presence raise eyebrows in Islamabad”, Dawn, 1 August, 2009, http://archives.dawn.com/archives/33228
[4] Arijit Barman, ” Essar to ink deal with Chinese cos to tap billion dollar funds for Vadinar products”,
Economic Times, May 20, 2013, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-20/news/39392784_1_essar-oil-vadinar-essar-energy-plc
[5] Danish Raza, “Vodafone tax case: Kejriwal targets Sibal, Essar denies allegations”, Firstpost, May 15, 2013, http://www.firstpost.com/politics/vodafone-tax-case-kejriwal-targets-sibal-essar-denies-allegations-784761.html
| Atul Bhardwaj is an international relations researcher at School of Liberal Studies, Ambedkar University, and Delhi.An Alumnus of King’s College, London He can be contacted at http://purpleberets.blogspot.in/ |
