By Inder Malhotra OVER a week after nuclear proliferation by Pakistan - the biggest and the worst scandal of its kind since the dawn of the nuclear age - burst into the open, two things are crystal clear.
First, that for the present at least General Pervez Musharraf has managed to overcome the crisis that had beleaguered him.
Secondly, and more importantly, this cannot be the end of the sordid affair even though the Pakistani president has acted according to a script for which he had secured America's approval.
The sheer scale and effrontery of the Pakistani misdeeds is staggering.
Nuclear secrets have been sold over a period of 10 to 20 years to Libya, Iran and North Korea - all three countries on U.S.
President George Bush's list of the "axis of evil".
As Director-General of the IAEA, UN's "nuclear watchdog", El Baradei, has said, it is impossible to think of such a staggering "Wal Market" or "chor bazar" would be envious of in nuclear materials, components and weapons designs.
The U.S., the self-appointed guardian of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, is certainly not amused.
And yet it is a measure of America's need of him in the driving seat in Islamabad and his own skills, that Musharraf has succeeded in pinning the entire blame for the monstrous Pakistani activity on the "father of the Islamic Bomb", Abdul Qadeer Khan and some of his cohorts.
He has also obtained America's concurrence with the pretence that no Pakistani government or military leader has ever been involved in Khan's terrible transactions.
Surely no one can be so na‹ve as to believe that in a country where the nuclear programme is totally controlled by the military a few scientists, by themselves, could have transported centrifuges and other equipment and material to distant countries in commandeered PAF aircraft for "personal gain".
However, the U.S.
has its reasons not to embarrass, leave alone weaken, the Pakistani military ruler.
Even so, the U.S.
Secretary of State, Colin Powell has not only phoned Musharraf but also decided to visit Pakistan later this month to "pursue the matter".
This suggests that there is likely to be a difference between Washington's public declarations over Pakistani proliferation activities and the pressures that it would be applying on Islamabad privately.
Particularly significant in this respect is Powell's demand, in the course of his phone call, that Pakistan should "share with the international community" details of the investigations it has carried out into the massive leakage of nuclear secrets.
Musharraf's answer to this request was that he would "take a decision" only after the investigations were completed.
This is a far cry from his earlier defiant declaration that Pakistan, as a sovereign country, would not allow any UN or "outside" interference with its nuclear assets or investigations.
It was obvious from the word go that to prosecute, leave alone punish, A.
Khan, a national icon in eyes of not just Islamists but also the Pakistanis at large, was impossible.
A former Chief of the Army Staff, Aslam Beg, (one of the two former Army Chiefs also questioned) and an even more defiant former Director-General of the ISI, Lt.-General Hamid Gul, rubbed this in and dared Gen.
Musharraf to put Khan on trial.
Hence the charade that unfolded later.
Khan who would win the Olympic gold in any contest in arrogance and boastfulness, was first seen on PTV sitting as a repentant wrongdoer in front of a grim-faced Musharraf whom, along with several other former Army leaders, he had privately accused of being party to his own misdeeds.
Later, he appeared on the TV alone, contritely accepting "full responsibility" for the clandestine nuclear exports and begging for clemency that the Pakistani President granted him with lightning speed.
Since then many Pakistanis, including liberals, have been protesting against the treatment meted out to the man "who made Pakistan invulnerable" by developing the nuclear bomb.
By making Khan the "scapegoat", the critics argue, Musharraf is making himself vulnerable to America's pressure that is "bound to follow" sooner or later.
Abbas Athar, a leading Urdu columnist, has commented that from an "atomic power we have become an atomic problem".
At the same time, newspaper reports that the wily Khan has given his London-based daughter, a British national, incriminating documents on the role in nuclear proliferation of the military top brass cannot be dismissed out of hand.
No wonder Musharraf has "allowed" Khan to "retain all his fabulous wealth" and yet warned him that the pardon given to him is "conditional".
This implicit threat pales compared with the explicit and stark one.
Two Pakistani Lieutenant-Generals, deputed by Musharraf, told Khan that if he did not confess, he could be "kidnapped" by American and Israeli agents! Both American and Pakistani sources have revealed that it was in October last that the U.S.
first confronted Musharraf with "overwhelming" and "compelling" evidence of the vast web of nuclear proliferation woven by Khan.
Much of this evidence had been volunteered to the U.S.
by Iran and Libya that makes nonsense of the tall claims about "Islamic solidarity" that Khan claims to be his one of his motivations in doling out nuclear technology to Muslim countries.
How did North Korea fit in with this scheme of things he hasn't cared to explain.
The American and Pakistani versions agree that it was on October 6 that two critically important meetings took place in Islamabad.
At one, the U.S.
Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, and Assistant Secretary for South Asia, Christina Rocca confronted Musharraf with the voluminous evidence.
It was a surprise to him.
At the same time, General John Abizad, commander of the U.S.
Central Command, read out the Riot Act to the Pakistani GHQ.
At both meetings, Pakistan was left in no doubt that failure to take action against those responsible for proliferation would "jeapordise" Pakistan's relations with not just America but also other important countries.
American interlocutors also told Musharraf that the $ 3-billion package of U.S.
military and economic aid over the next five years could be "at risk".
In this country there is understandable disappointment with America's "indulgence" to Pakistan even when its conduct has been abominable by U.S.
But this is reality that we must reckon with.
It should not be overlooked that the U.S.
continues to describe Pakistan as a "key ally" in the "global war" on terrorism even when cross-border terrorism persists in Kashmir.
America's double standards on the scourge of terrorism emanate from its priority to curbing terrorism on Pakistan's western frontier with Afghanistan.
It was no accident that in his talk with Musharraf on the telephone, Powell told him that during his impending sojourn, in addition to the grave issue of proliferation, he would discuss "strategies" to arrest Osama bin Laden and the Taliban supreme leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar.
Both are suspected to be in the Pakistani tribal areas.
How the U.S.-Pakistan equation over nonproliferation works out time alone will tell.
But one ominous possibility should not be ruled out.
It stands to reason that the U.S.
would want the right to maintain surveillance on the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and even to insist on a capping of the Pakistani nuclear programme.
Musharraf's angry talk with Pakistani editors, warning them that "irresponsible" writings in the media could "endanger" Pakistani nuclear assets, speaks for itself.
The problem is entirely Pakistan-specific.
But Pakistan is bound to insist that whatever steps are expected of it must be enforced on India, too.
America's propensity to hyphenate its relations with India and Pakistan hasn't vanished despite all the talk about the Indo-U.S.
"strategic partnership".
A lot of what Musharraf has been saying ever since Pakistan's monumental scandal burst into the open is nothing but dissimulation, to put it politely.
He has also been trying to draw multiple red herrings across the trail.
But on one point he is absolutely right.
Khan hasn't acted alone.
At every stage he has had European, Asian and African collaborators, including "respected" firms which manufactured components that Khan sold to Libya, Iran and North Korea.
Why is no one in the U.S.
or elsewhere doing anything about these culprits? Joint Approach For Progress Towards a high growth strategy By Dhurjati Mukherjee Indians have felt elated at being projected as at global economic power in the coming years.
However, we need to take care that the growth is not stifled by excessive resort to financial compression and monetary tightening, as well as premature capital account liberalisation.
To keep the sentiment, the current years has been a boom for the economy with projected growth signals being one of the highest in recent years.
The Reserve Bank of India has predicted a growth between 6.5 to 7 per cent for the current year, benign inflation outlook and a subdued increase in money expansion with strong capital inflow.
Similarly, according to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICRA), the growth would be around 6.9 per cent due to a sharp increase in agricultural GDP by as much as 9 per cent compared to a decline of 3.1 per cent in the farm output last fiscal.
But the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has gone ahead by projecting the growth at 7.2 per cent.
Even the mid-term review of the Union Government has projected a growth of 7 per cent, with agriculture contributing 9 per cent and industry around 7 per cent.
Another rating agency has predicted 7.1 per cent growth in the wake of an excellent monsoon with agricultural growth projected at 7.3 per cent, industry at 6.3 per cent and services at 7.5 per cent.
There is a feeling, and not without doubt, that the improvement in performance is making India truly efficient to compete with the global giants.
Lately, the World Bank has announced that the Indian economy can grow by 6 to 8 per cent in the coming years.
All major industries have been showing exceptional growth.
As against the average working capital requirement of 60 days in 2000, companies are now working at less than 15 days.
Moreover, some leading corporates are working at zero capital requirements as they are flush with funds.
Besides this, the sharp reduction in interest rates over the last two years has also helped the corporates to improve the return on capital.
It is generally believed that most of the companies are currently consolidating their operations while very few are setting up Greenfield projects or enhancing capacity.
An important aspect in the growth strategy has been to remove the bottleneck in the infrastructure sector like telecom.
This has substantially reduced operational costs.
But the Government's emphasis in sectors like road and power would give a fillip to growth in the economy in the coming years.
It may be pertinent here to mention that the Government will be spending Rs 15,000 crore for constructing additional lanes on the roads between the four metros as part of the Golden Quadrilateral Project.
There has been a change in approach towards the rural sector with emphasis on health and education.
Social infrastructure development is being seriously considered, so that the poorer and deprived sections of the population can get proper facilities for a better life.
The involvement of the private sector and of the community , has led to some vital decisions by the Government, for it is only through a joint approach that the people can prosper.
The potential of social organisations, such as health and education committees, to name only a few, to improve delivery of services is vast and advantage must be taken of these possibilities through appropriate devolution of functions and authority.
The decentralization of economic power has already started and it is expected that the municipalities and the panchayats would be able to raise resources for their development activities and work in collaboration with the private sector and the NGOs.
It is pertinent to mention here that the Sarva Siksha Abhiyan (SSA) has been an important programme of the Centre, in partnership with the States, the local governments and the community for achieving the goal of universalisation of elementary education (to all children in the age group of 6-14 years) by 20 10.
Similarly, the National Health Policy needs to be implemented in letter and spirit to meet the health needs of women and children, control of diseases like T.B., malaria, blindness and HIV/AIDS and organisational restructuring of the public health systems to facilitate more equitable access to health care, specially for the poor and the disadvantaged.
There can be no doubt that India is steadily emerging as a strong global power in the coming years because of its steady economic growth.
Apart from the need to put a check on population growth which all the major countries of the world, including China, have been successful in doing, four other conditions have been aptly noticed internationally.
These are good institutions, transparency (commercial or otherwise), stable macro-economic environment and spread of education.
Good governance has been a long-felt need which is necessary for maintaining all the above conditions and lifting the country's income levels over the long-term.
It is only through good governance that a high level of social and economic development can be achieved all over the country and in various sectors and sub-sectors, particularly those which have been lagging behind.
It has been recognised that economic growth alone cannot be the only objective of national planning and development objectives should be specified in the broader sense of enhancement of human well-being.
To reflect the importance of these dimensions in development planning, the National Development Council had approved that in addition to the growth target, certain additional quantifiable targets relating to poverty, employment, social and economic indicators should also been considered as being central to the attainment of the objectives of the Tenth Plan.
It is generally agreed by experts that high rates of growth are essential if we want to provide a sufficient expansion of sustainable gainful employment opportunities to our expanding labour force and to ensure a sufficient increase in incomes of the poor and disadvantaged.
It is equally true that high rates of growth may not be sustainable if they are not accompanied by dispersion of purchasing power, which can provide the demand needed to support the increase in output, and/or of economic activities.
Thus improvements in social and economic indicators are essential for the sustainability of the growth process for which the Government has been putting a got of attention on health, education and poverty alleviation sectors.
To keep up the momentum, the Government has constituted a high-powered task force to recommend steps for investment promotion and coordinate strategy to achieve the 8 per cent GDP growth.
The task force would provide the Government an opportunity to give a fresh impetus to the reforms process.
It is also an effort to give a clear message that the economic decision-making will not be affected by electoral and other considerations.
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